Foresight of Community-Based Regeneration in Historic Urban Fabrics with Rural Origins: A Case Study of Sofla Neighborhood, Isfahan, Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Ali Momeni ¹

Jamileh Tavakolinia ¹

Mohsen Kalantari ¹

Amir Reza Khavarian-Garmsir ²

¹ Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

² University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

10.22067/jrrp.v15i3.2607-1177

Abstract

Purpose- In recent years, community‑based regeneration has gained attention because of its emphasis on participation and local governance. However, uncertainty about future development paths makes planning interventions more complex. Therefore, this study explores the future of community‑based urban regeneration in the historic Sofla neighborhood of Isfahan by identifying key driving forces and possible scenarios.
Design/methodology/approach- This research is applied in purpose and follows a descriptive–analytical design using a mixed approach. First, key variables affecting community‑based urban regeneration were extracted through literature review and document analysis. Next, a cross‑impact matrix questionnaire was completed by 15 experts in urban planning and regeneration selected through purposive sampling. Relationships among variables were analyzed using structural analysis to determine influence and dependence levels. Finally, key drivers were used in scenario analysis to identify consistent future scenarios.
Findings- The analysis revealed that "Integrated Urban Management" acts as the primary key driver, while four leverage variables—"Formalization of Local Development Office," "Preparation and Implementation of Regeneration Program," "Stakeholder Identification and Local Needs Assessment," and "Formation of Community-Based Organizations"—function as critical dual-aspect variables with the highest capacity to transform the system. Subsequently, the dual-aspect variables were entered into scenario planning analysis, yielding two consistent scenarios. The results indicate that a desirable future for regeneration relies on strengthening institutional structures, enhancing real participation, and fostering synergy between urban management and the local community.
Research limitations/implications- The primary limitations of this study include the scarcity of specialized experts in this specific field, the lack of local community-based knowledge, and the ongoing dominance of a purely physical perspective in urban planning. To counter these challenges, future strategies must prioritize raising awareness and educating local communities about participatory approaches. Furthermore, shifting the planning paradigm from a traditional physical focus toward an integrated social and institutional framework is essential for meaningful urban regeneration.
Originality/Value- This study provides significant value by integrating structural cross-impact matrices with scenario analysis specifically within the historic context of Isfahan’s Sofla neighborhood. Its originality lies in shifting the regeneration paradigm from standard physical interventions toward a dynamic, future-oriented model of participatory governance. Ultimately, it offers urban planners actionable empirical tools to navigate uncertainties and support informed decision-making in historic preservation.

Keywords

Foresight

Community-Based Regeneration

Historic Fabrics

Rural Origins

Isfahan

Subjects

• Rural Studies

---

References

1. Akbari, P., Habibi, K., & Ahmadi, M. (2023). Evaluation and analysis of urban investment models and indicators with emphasis on an economy‑led regeneration approach. Urban Environmental Planning and Development, 3(9), 101–118. [In Persian]. https://sanad.iau.ir/fa/Article/910143

2. Aldossary, M., Alqahtany, A., & Alshammari, M. (2025). Cultural heritage as a catalyst for sustainable urban regeneration: The case of Tarout Island, Saudi Arabia. Sustainability, 17(10), 4431. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104431

3. Alegado, A. (2025). Reimagining an urban future: A foresight‑driven approach for a thriving city. International Journal of Education Humanities and Social Science. https://doi.org/10.54922/ijehss.2025.0931

4. Amanzadegan, E., Tabibian, M., Amanzadegan, M., Amanzadegan, H., & Amanzadegan, M. (2021). Prioritizing sustainable urban regeneration policies in the historical area of Shiraz with attention to authority relations. Urban Environmental Planning and Development, 1(2), 1–20. [In Persian]. https://sanad.iau.ir/fa/Article/910007

5. Arthurson, K. (2003). Neighbourhood regeneration: Facilitating community involvement. Urban Policy and Research, 21(4), 357–371. https://doi.org/10.1080/0811114032000147403

6. Baek, S., & Kwon, H. (2020). Participatory planning through flexible approach: Public community facilities in Seoul’s urban regeneration project. Sustainability, 12(24), 10435. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410435

7. Burnham, B. (2022). A blended finance framework for heritage‑led urban regeneration. Land, 11(8), 1154. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11081154

8. Cherunya, P. C., Ahlborg, H., & Truffer, B. (2020). Anchoring innovations in oscillating domestic spaces: Why sanitation service offerings fail in informal settlements. Research Policy, 49(1), 103841. https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/respol/v49y2020i1s0048733319301611.html

9.  Della Spina, L. (2024). A decision support evaluation framework for community‑based collaborative urban regeneration processes. Sustainability, 16(15), 6434. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16156434

10. Ghaedi, M., Mohamadian, R., & Keshishyan Siraki, G. (2025). Investigating public policy on the process of renewal and regeneration of deteriorated urban fabric in Shiraz city. Urban Environmental Planning and Development, 5(18), 13–26. [In Persian]. https://sanad.iau.ir/fa/Article/1210292

11. Ganjeali, F. and Ghalandarian, I. (2024). Behavior-Oriented Design in Neighborhoods with Rural Origins (Case Study: Saber Street in Noh-Dareh, Mashhad). Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 13(1), 119-140. https://doi:10.22067/jrrp.v13i1.2404-1100

12. Habermas, J. (1984). The theory of communicative action. Boston: Beacon Press.

13. Hosseini, A., Finn, B. M., & Momeni, A. (2023). The complexities of urban informality: A multi-dimensional analysis of residents' perceptions of life, inequality, and access in an Iranian informal settlement. Cities, 132, 104099. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264275122005388

14. Lak, A., Gheitasi, M., & Timothy, D. J. (2020). Urban regeneration through heritage tourism: Cultural policies and strategic management. Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change, 18(4), 386–403. https://doi.org/10.1080/14766825.2019.1668002

15. Lei, H., & Zhou, Y. (2022). Conducting heritage tourism‑led urban renewal in Chinese historical and cultural urban spaces: A case study of Datong. Land, 11(12), 2122. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11122122

16. Li, X., Zhang, F., Hui, E. C. M., & Lang, W. (2020). Collaborative workshop and community participation: A new approach to urban regeneration in China. Cities, 102, 102743. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102743

17. Mangunsong, W. Y., Lubis, S. N., & Lubis, I. (2023). Analysis of community participating factors in development planning applying the participatory rural appraisal method. International Journal of Educational Research & Social Sciences, 4(1), 154–161. https://doi.org/10.51601/ijersc.v4i1.603

18. Masoudi, H. (2022). Social regeneration: Community‑oriented spatial strategic planning in low‑income neighborhoods. Journal of Engineering and Construction Management, 6(1), 1–7. [In Persian]. https://www.jecm.ir/m/article_156224.html

19. Meskell, L. (2019). Heritage, gentrification, participation: Remaking urban landscapes in the name of culture and historic preservation. International Journal of Heritage Studies, 25(9), 996–998. https://doi.org/10.1080/13527258.2018.1542334

20. Momeni, A., & Kozegarkaleji, L. (2025). Legal challenges of community‑based urban governance in Iran (case study: Local development offices in Isfahan). Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement, 15(57), 29–58. [In Persian]. https://gaij.usb.ac.ir/article_9420.html

21. Momeni, A., Tavakolinia, J., Kalantari, M., and Khavarian, A. R. (2025). Meta‑analysis of urban regeneration with a community‑based approach in Iran. Geographical Urban Planning Research, 13(4), 59–81. [In Persian]. https://jurbangeo.ut.ac.ir/article_105462.html

22.  Momeni, A., Tavakolinia, J., Kalantari, M., and Khavarian, A. R. (2026). “Identifying the Key Driving Forces of Community-Based Urban Regeneration in Historic Fabrics, a Case Study of Sofla Local Development Office, Isfahan.” Urban Environmental Planning  and Development, vol. 6, no. 21, 2026, pp. 1-16. 10. https://sanad.iau.ir/Journal/juep/Article/1234476

23. Momeni, A. (2020). Evaluating the performance of facilitation offices in the regeneration of deteriorated urban fabrics (case study: Hemmatabad and Sofla neighborhoods of Isfahan) (MA thesis in Geography, supervised by Ahmad Pourahmad). University of Tehran, Faculty of Geography. [In Persian]

24. Najdaghi, N., & Nejad Ebrahini, A. (2019). Community‑led urban regeneration through training based on Islamic thought in Tabriz’s Sorkhab historical zone. Journal of Urban Planning Management, 9(35), 139–150. [In Persian]. https://jupm.marvdasht.iau.ir/article_3301.html

25. Neuhoff, R., Simeone, L., & Laursen, L. (2023). Forms of participatory futuring for urban sustainability: A systematic review. Futures, 154, 103268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103268

26. Parikh, P., Bisaga, I., Loggia, C., Georgiadou, M. C., & Ojo‑Aromokudu, J. (2020). Barriers and opportunities for participatory environmental upgrading: Case study of Havelock informal settlement, Durban. City and Environment Interactions, 5, 100041. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cacint.2020.100041

27. Polci, V., & Pierantoni, I. (2024). Innovating the local plan through co‑creation and the public sociology approach toward urban regeneration: An Italian case study. Sustainability, 16(8), 3160. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083160

28. Pulles, K., Conti, I., Kleijn, M., Kusters, B., Rous, T., Havinga, L., Kaya, D., & Pratt, P. (2023). Emerging strategies for regeneration of historic urban sites: A systematic literature review. City, Culture and Society, 35, 100539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ccs.2023.100539

29. Ricci, L., Mariano, C., & Perrone, F. (2024). Cultural heritage recognition through protection of historical value and urban regeneration: CSOA Forte Prenestino. Land, 13(4), 453. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13040453

30. Saghaei, M. , Azadeh, S. R. , Fadaeijazi, F. and Jafari, F. (2020). The Analysis of Key Factors Influencing the Expansion of Rural Migration with Eemphasis on the Issue of Informal Settlement (Case Study: Shirabad Neighborhood in Zahedan). Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 9(3), 15-33. https://doi:10.22067/jrrp.v9i3.84206  

31. Sharifi, A., Aboagye, P., Zhang, M., & Murayama, A. (2024). A participatory foresight approach to envisioning post‑pandemic urban development pathways in Tokyo. Habitat International, 147, 103108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2024.103108

32. Shakour, A. and Shojaeifard, A. (2021). Regeneration of the Culture of Rural Areas of Iran in Order to Direct the Communication of Villagers with Urban System with the Approach of Sustainable Rural Development. Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 10(2), 99-114. https://doi:10.22067/JRRP.V10I2.2101.1001 

33. Shen, T., Yao, X., & Wen, F. (2021). The urban regeneration engine model: An analytical framework and case study of the renewal of old communities. Land Use Policy, 108, 105571. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105571

34. Smith, M. K. (2011). Neighborhoods and regeneration: Theory, practice, issues. The Encyclopedia of Informal Education, 18–21. http://www.infed.org/community/neighbourhoods_and_regeneration.htm

35. Szpilko, D. (2020). Foresight as a tool for the planning and implementation of visions for smart city development. Energies, 13(7), 1782. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13071782

36. Maghsoodi Tilaki, M. J., & Farhad, S. (2025). Revitalising historic fabrics: The influence of identity and community belonging. Geographical Research, 63(4), 573–593. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-5871.70018

37. Wainaina, G. K., Truffer, B., & Lüthi, C. (2022). The role of institutional logics during participation in urban processes and projects: Insights from a comparative analysis of upgrading fifteen informal settlements in Kenya. Cities, 128, 103799. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103799

38. Yang, J., Yang, L., & Huang, H. (2022). Community participation strategy for sustainable urban regeneration in Xiamen, China. Land, 11(5), 600. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11050600

39. Ziaei, A. (2015). Social recreation as a foundation: A reflection on the concept of social group and its link with the urban regeneration approach. Urban Planning Queries. [In Persian]. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328132104