Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2
Aliabad-e Katul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Aliabad-e Katul, Iran.
10.22067/jrrp.2026.101430.1188
Abstract
Purpose- This study aimed to conduct foresight of education and empowerment of rural human capital in Iran in the era of digital transformation and to identify the key factors shaping the future of this field and the alternative scenarios that may emerge from different combinations of future conditions.
Design/methodology/approach- The study adopted a foresight approach and employed scenario planning based on the Global Business Network (GBN) approach, with Martin’s foresight model serving as the overall framework. Data were collected through documentary studies and semi-structured interviews with 25 experts from academic, executive and policy-making, technology and digital transformation, and rural development fields. The collected data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis, and the identified factors, trends, opportunities, challenges, and driving forces were organized into six dimensions: sociocultural, technological, economic, environmental, political, and intellectual-philosophical.
Findings- The findings showed that the 38 identified key factors could be grouped into six major driving forces: social and cultural acceptance of digital transformation in rural areas; development of rural digital education technology and infrastructure; economic support and financial sustainability of rural education and empowerment; governance and policy coherence for rural digital transformation; flexibility and redefinition of the rural skills and human capital system; and equity and inclusion in rural education and digital transformation. The combination of the two key uncertainties resulted in four alternative scenarios: Smart Villages, Empowered People; Bright Lights, Dark Homes; Ready Hands, Distant Tools; and A Land Left Behind by Change.
Research limitations/implications- The study focuses on the future of education and empowerment of rural human capital in Iran and relies on documentary evidence and expert judgments. Therefore, the identified scenarios should be interpreted as alternative and plausible futures rather than predictions of a single predetermined future.
Originality/value- This study develops a foresight-based framework for examining the future of rural human capital education and empowerment in the context of digital transformation. The findings emphasize that technological development alone is insufficient for sustainable empowerment and that technological and infrastructural capacity should be considered in interaction with social and cultural readiness, economic support, governance, skills-system flexibility, and equity and inclusion.
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