Document Type : علمی
Purpose- The purpose of the study is to determine the land use change scenarios in Bash Qaleh dehestan.
Design/methodology/approach- Research methodology is based on futures studies and scenario studies. First, a list of drivers using documents 34 domestic and foreign research in the field of land use was prepared and then through the view of villagers and farmers (318) (Using Likert scale) and experts (22) the importance and their impact on land use were studied. For development scenarios, a team of five experts (2 rural planners, 2 regional planners, one natural resource expert) was used. Mick Mac software and Wizard scenario were also used for data analysis.
Findings- The results showed that people's income, production level, return on investment in activity, industrial agriculture and agricultural margin were the most effective and uncertain drivers of land use change. For these drivers, eight scenarios were developed and developed.
Practical implications- Food security, encouragement of conservation of resources, encouraging policies for population growth, increasing community well-being, droughts, climate change, soil erosion, the emphasis of civil society on the rights of citizens and protection of the rights of the next generation, the emphasis of governments on economic self-sufficiency is only part of the opposite trends which has faced land use challenges. It is suggested that specific programs be developed and monitored to avoid them for any scenario.