Future scenarios of rural settlements of Iran

Document Type : علمی


Urmia University


Purpose: Considering the speed of change in geographical areas, human power could not predict the future. Rural areas as one of the human settlements has failed to keep pace with the changes. So scholars and researchers have some doubts about the survival of rural areas. According to the events taking place or possible events in the future, the present study attempts to investigate the rural survival from the future study approach.
Methodology: The article is based on research using the Delphi technique. Initially the key factors, events, and driving forces effective on survival in rural areas were selected by the Delphi experts and the effectiveness and the uncertainty were rated using a hierarchical model of AHP, TOPSSIS.
Findings: Based on these results, income and employment are key factors affecting the living rural and development of information and communication technologies in rural areas and the policy of small settlements development were identified as key factors in the process of and consensus indicators and based on their were drawn alternative future scenarios of rural.
Research limitation: The lack of information on some of the key factors in the time series.
Original/value: The significance of the research is that in this study the future state and propellants and constituent villages have been identified and the action plan is based on the direct control.